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Longlisted for the Financial Times and Schroders Business Book of the Year Award
How 1,000 years of global history show why technological and economic progress is often followed by stagnation and even collapse
In How Progress Ends, Carl Benedikt Frey challenges the conventional belief that economic and technological progress is inevitable. For most of human history, stagnation was the norm, and even today progress and prosperity in the world’s largest, most advanced economies—the United States and China—have fallen short of expectations. To appreciate why we cannot depend on any AI-fueled great leap forward, Frey offers a remarkable and fascinating journey across the globe, spanning the past 1,000 years, to explain why some societies flourish and others fail in the wake of rapid technological change.
By examining key historical moments—from the rise of the steam engine to the dawn of AI—Frey shows why technological shifts have shaped, and sometimes destabilized, entire civilizations. He explores why some leading technological powers of the past—such as Song China, the Dutch Republic, and Victorian Britain—ultimately lost their innovative edge, why some modern nations such as Japan had periods of rapid growth followed by stagnation, and why planned economies like the Soviet Union collapsed after brief surges of progress. Frey uncovers a recurring tension in history: while decentralization fosters the exploration of new technologies, bureaucracy is crucial for scaling them. When institutions fail to adapt to technological change, stagnation inevitably follows. Only by carefully balancing decentralization and bureaucracy can nations innovate and grow over the long term—findings that have worrying implications for the United States, Europe, China, and other economies today.
Through a rich narrative that weaves together history, economics, and technology, How Progress Ends reveals that managing the future requires us to draw the right lessons from the past.
Paul A. Baran, Paul M. Sweezy
Gabriel Zucman
Tim Wu
Rebecca Henderson
Not Stated
Marianne Lewis, Wendy Smith
Andrew Ross Sorkin
John C. Maxwell
Carolyn Dewar
Nick Wolny
Michael J. Mauboussin
Deborah Gruenfeld
Daryl Fielding
Simon Laffin
Jonathan Hollow, Robin Powell
Kirstin Ferguson
Richard Strozzi-Heckler
Andy Swash, Dave Smallshire
Elena Botelho, Kim Powell, Tahl Raz
Eric Schmidt III, Jonathan Rosenberg
Scott Kupor
Alex Ferguson
Sarah Easter Collins
Frida Skybäck
Liz Moore
Colleen Hoover
Kristin Fägerskjöld
Armando Lucas Correa
Sharon Bolton
Ruth Lillegraven
Santa Montefiore
Kelly Rimmer
Martha Hall Kelly
Svenja O'Donnell
Nathan Harris
Holly Jackson
Louise Boije af Gennäs
Tina Norin
Kristin Fägerskjöld
Pernilla Lindroos
Anna Lönnqvist
Jessie Burton
Malin Nordström
Marc Levy
Emma Donoghue
Snezana Lindskog, Andie Lindskog
Tony Samuelsson
Andrev Walden
Tina Harnesk
Kathrine Nedrejord
Anthony Doerr
Marieke Lucas Rijneveld
Lauren Groff
Claire Messud
Claire Lynch
Sebastian Barry
Ray Celestin
Simon Stranger
Alice Munro
Linda Boström Knausgård
Marit Kapla
Ulf Stark
Sarah Easter Collins
Liz Moore
Ursula Scavenius
Colleen Hoover
Michel Jean
