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A New York Times Book Review Editor’s Choice: A vivid account of the generations-long dispute over Bayes’ rule, one of the greatest breakthroughs in the history of applied mathematics and statistics “An intellectual romp touching on, among other topics, military ingenuity, the origins of modern epidemiology, and the theological foundation of modern mathematics.”—Michael Washburn, Boston Globe “To have crafted a page-turner out of the history of statistics is an impressive feat. If only lectures at university had been this racy.”—David Robson, New Scientist Bayes’ rule appears to be a straightforward, one-line theorem: by updating our initial beliefs with objective new information, we get a new and improved belief. To its adherents, it is an elegant statement about learning from experience. To its opponents, it is subjectivity run amok. In the first-ever account of Bayes’ rule for general readers, Sharon Bertsch McGrayne explores this controversial theorem and the human obsessions surrounding it. She traces its discovery by an amateur mathematician in the 1740s through its development into roughly its modern form by French scientist Pierre Simon Laplace. She reveals why respected statisticians rendered it professionally taboo for 150 years—at the same time that practitioners relied on it to solve crises involving great uncertainty and scanty information (Alan Turing’s role in breaking Germany’s Enigma code during World War II), and explains how the advent of off-the-shelf computer technology in the 1980s proved to be a game-changer. Today, Bayes’ rule is used everywhere from DNA de-coding to Homeland Security. Drawing on primary source material and interviews with statisticians and other scientists, The Theory That Would Not Die is the riveting account of how a seemingly simple theorem ignited one of the greatest controversies of all time.
Rita Colwell, Sharon Bertsch McGrayne
Jakow Trachtenberg
Shin Takahashi
Ian Stewart
Daina Taimina
Andrew Dilnot, Michael Blastland
Mark Bollman
Martin Peterson
Joel Levy
Richard Wrangham
The Makers of the Raspberry Pi Official Magazine
Vaclav Smil
Construction Industry Training Board (CITB)
Grace Lindsay
Rupert Sheldrake
Richard O. Prum
Michael Gottlieb, Ralph Leighton, Richard Feynman
Charles Darwin
Cecil A. Hewett
Professor Tim Spector
Harriet Rix
James G. Speight
Editorial Committee of the Madrid Code
Sarah Easter Collins
Frida Skybäck
Liz Moore
Colleen Hoover
Kristin Fägerskjöld
Armando Lucas Correa
Sharon Bolton
Ruth Lillegraven
Santa Montefiore
Kelly Rimmer
Martha Hall Kelly
Svenja O'Donnell
Nathan Harris
Holly Jackson
Louise Boije af Gennäs
Tina Norin
Kristin Fägerskjöld
Pernilla Lindroos
Anna Lönnqvist
Jessie Burton
Malin Nordström
Marc Levy
Emma Donoghue
Snezana Lindskog, Andie Lindskog
Tony Samuelsson
Andrev Walden
Tina Harnesk
Kathrine Nedrejord
Anthony Doerr
Marieke Lucas Rijneveld
Lauren Groff
Claire Messud
Claire Lynch
Sebastian Barry
Ray Celestin
Simon Stranger
Alice Munro
Linda Boström Knausgård
Marit Kapla
Ulf Stark
Sarah Easter Collins
Liz Moore
Ursula Scavenius
Colleen Hoover
Michel Jean
